Current Roster Situation
Let’s first set up the Cavs off season situation. Below is the current roster with salaries thru 2016/17. As it stands today, there are only 6 players with guaranteed contracts for next season (Andy, Kyrie, TT, Waiters, Gee and Zeller). Marreese Speights has a $4.5m player option and it is presumed that he will opt out and test the FA waters. With an extremely weak FA class this offseason combined with Speights’ solid post-trade season (10 ppg, 5 rpg, 45% FG in only 18 mpg), he most likely will be able to get more than his $4.5m option in the open market. This is ok for the Cavs as he does not fit Mike Brown’s defensive mentality inside. The other two players with qualifying offers are Wayne Ellington and Omri Casspi. You can waive bye bye to Casspi. Ellington, on the other hand, was a nice player off the bench for the Cavs providing good outside shooting and a good veteran approach. I think $3.1m for one year of Ellington’s services is a bargain and he will likely stick around for another season. Finally, the Cavs have a $2.2m team option on CJ Miles. I personally am not a fan of Miles’ game at all as he is one of the least efficient offensive players in the NBA (scoring 11 ppg on only 41% shooting). He’s a shoot first only player and plays no defense whatsoever. He is not a good fit in Mike Brown’s system and between he and Ellington I believe only one should stick around. Assuming Ellington is in the mix that makes 7 players under contract for this upcoming season at only $31.1m in total salary. Remember, due to the new CBA rules, teams need to spend 85% of the upcoming salary cap (cap not set yet but ~$58m is expected) which would equate to $49m. The good news is that there is no penalty for not reaching this floor but if a team is short of that $49m figure, the remaining dollars get spread evenly across the existing roster. So in essence, the Cavs have to spend at least another $18m this season in new salaries to reach the cap floor.
| Key: Player Option / Team Option / Qualifying Offer | |||||
| Assuming: $58m 2013-14 Salary Cap, $70.3m Tax threshold | |||||
| Player | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 |
| Anderson Varejao | $8,400,000 | $9,100,000 | $9,800,000 | $0 | $0 |
| Luke Walton | $6,091,363 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Kyrie Irving | $5,530,080 | $5,915,880 | $7,459,924 | $9,697,901 | $0 |
| Daniel Gibson | $4,792,332 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Marreese Speights | $4,200,000 | $4,515,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Tristan Thompson | $4,006,080 | $4,285,560 | $5,421,233 | $7,150,606 | $0 |
| Dion Waiters | $3,726,600 | $3,894,240 | $4,062,000 | $5,138,430 | $6,777,589 |
| Alonzo Gee | $3,500,000 | $3,250,000 | $3,250,000 | $0 | $0 |
| Omri Casspi | $2,277,306 | $3,313,480 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| CJ Miles | $2,225,000 | $2,225,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Wayne Ellington | $2,083,042 | $3,103,732 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Tyler Zeller | $1,563,120 | $1,633,440 | $1,703,760 | $2,616,975 | $3,695,168 |
| Shaun Livingston | $806,323 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Kevin Jones | $390,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| TOTALS: | $49,591,246 | $41,236,332 | $31,696,917 | $24,603,912 | $10,472,757 |
Trade Options
In terms of potential trades, we'd all love to get our hands on guys like LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Love but I want to be realistic here. Those stars aren't available, yet. I'll get back to you next off season for a potential deal. With the 2014 draft being heralded as one of the best of recent memory, I highly doubt that either Minnesota or Portland would make a move on their star in advance of that draft.
As far as the Cavs I'd like to see them go after a young veteran SF who doesn't make a ton of money but can come in and start immediately. If you look at guys potentially available on teams heading towards the luxury tax, I point to one player in particular, and that is Wilson Chandler from the Denver Nuggets. Chandler is a 26 year old, 6-8, 220 lb SF who can shoot it well from the outside and plays solid defense. After coming back from an early season injury, Chandler put up 13.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.3 apg and 1.0 steals. He did it while shooting 46% from the field and 41% from 3pt land. Almost as important, he only makes $6.3m this season and $6.7m next season with a $7.1m team option in 2015. Those are reasonable salary figures for the next 2 years and I think the Cavs could easily absorb this without hurting any of their future cap flexibility. Now you may ask why Denver would let him go. Assuming Andre Iguodala resigns with Denver, they are going to be staring at a salary figure of ~$70m this upcoming season and will be over $60m in 2014. This doesn't even include having to resign Kenneth Farried to a large extension, for which he will be demanding in a few short years. So it is imperative for the Nuggets to shed some salary. In addition, the emergence of rookie SF Evan Fournier after Dino Gallinari went down with a season ending injury, would help replace Chandler's production. The biggest question is how to get Chandler to the Cavs in a trade. A possibility would be to pick up the one year option on CJ Miles and ship him along with pick #19 for Chandler. Denver gets to shed multiple years and ~$3m/yr off the cap for at least two years and get a guy in Miles who can replace some of Chandler's SF production and can thrive in a up tempo offense along with the 19th pick ($1.1m cap hold).
A way for the Cavs to recover a first round pick lost in a Chandler type of trade? Nowhere else to look except for the Dallas Mavericks who have made it known they intend to trade the pick in order to save cap space for a run at Dwight Howard. The Cavs could trade Dallas pick #31, which is not guaranteed, along with the Sacramento future 1st round protected pick that came in the Hickson/Casspi deal. That way Dallas gets some assets but doesn’t add any money to their salary cap. Gilbert could even toss in $2-3m in cash to make that trade happen.
Draft Options
It’s easy to write about how Nerlens Noel should be the #1 pick but I having watched him play many times this season for UK along with his ACL injury, extremely frail body at 206 lbs and beyond limited offensive skills I just don’t think he is worthy as the first selection. Gone are the days of just taking the best big man available at the top of the NBA draft. As we have seen, the new NBA is won with stud perimeter players. According to DraftExpress, Noel was only used on 18% of his team’s offensive possessions, which ranks an astonishing 6th on UK alone! He had three possessions per game with his back to the basket and only scored on 45% of those plays, showing just how limited his back to the basket skills are against mediocre SEC big man competition. He has zero jumpshot to speak of and shot only 53% from the foul line this past season. So you will have two sub 60% FT shooters on the floor at the same time if you pair Thompson and Noel together late in games. You have to assume Noel will become a better offensive player but his upside will be limited to a point. What you are getting is a great shot blocker, with zero offensive skills, who runs very well in transition but will be pushed around in the post for a few years before he gains 20+ lbs at least.
Back in March, thanks to WFNY’s Jacob Rosen, I wrote my opinion on some of the top prospects coming out in this year’s draft- http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2013/03/2013-nba-draft-second-tier-fits-for-the-cavaliers/. Even then I thought that Otto Porter was the best fit for the Cavs needs at SF. I still like Porter but I’ve been starting to get warm to the idea of other options at pick #1. I think that there are only four players to consider at this spot for the Cavs- Noel, Porter, Victor Oladipo, Ben McLemore and Alex Len. We all know Porter’s attributes as a solid, team first, heady player. I think his floor is as safe as any player in this draft but also his upside is somewhat limited. Many have compared Porter to Tayshaun Prince which I think is pretty fair. You can expect a nice, solid SF for the next 10-12 years who can play defense and be a good team player. If you want to pencil in a Tayshaun type of career right now for Porter I think many teams would be happy in the top 10. Problem is, if there are players a team is passing on who could be a perpetual All Star and maybe a franchise type of player, it’s tough to settle on Porter. Again I do like him and think he is the type of player the Cavs need but there is another guy who I think has a real shot to be the best player in this draft- Victor Oladipo. Consider this, here are the combine measurements and statistics of a current NBA player during his final collegiate season compared to Oladipo’s from this past season:
NBA Player: 6-2.2 w/out shoes, 192 lbs, 36.5 vertical leap, 3.08 ¾ sprint. 34.9 MPG- 12.7 ppg, 4.3 apg, 3.9 rpg, 46.5% FG, 33.8% 3pt, 71.3% FT
Oladipo: 6-3.2 w/out shoes, 213 lbs, 42.0 vertical leap, 3.25 ¾ sprint. 28.4 MPG- 13.6 ppg, 2.1 apg, 6.3 rpg, 59.9% FG, 44.1 3pt, 74.6% FT
That NBA player also had concerns coming out of college that he was a tweener and scouts weren’t sure whether he was a PG or SG. That NBA player is Russell Westbrook. Everyone in the NBA realizes how great of an athlete that Westbrook is at the PG position but it should be noted that Oladipo put up athletic numbers that rival and even beat Westbrook’s results including a ridiculous 42 inch vertical leap. Of course there are questions with Oladipo’s offensive game but he was one of the most efficient players in CBB last season, shooting an insane 60% for a Guard including 44% from 3pt range. Granted he didn’t take many 3’s per game (1.9/g) but proved that he has the ability to make outside shots. Also, remember that there were plenty of ball handling & PG concerns when Westbrook came out too. He was a tweener at the time and here are specific quotes from the scouting report provided from the DraftExpress website: “Westbrook’s ball-handling skills are fairly limited.” “He lacks the advanced dribbling skills needed to create his own shot and change directions sharply in the half-court.” “It’s still not quite clear what position Westbrook will play in the NBA, even if it could probably be said that his upside is so high that he can just figure that out down the road.” These are all the same things being said about Oladipo and the good news for Cavs fans is he doesn’t need to play more than a few minutes per game at the point but has shown enough promise that he could if need be. What really intrigues me the most about Oladipo’s game is his non-stop motor and excellent perimeter defense. He held Trey Burke to 16-44 (36%) shooting in their two matchups this season. The guy is a demon in transition and his defensive prowess would lead to easy fast breaks. I’m sure there are concerns about where Oladipo would play with the Cavs considering they have Kyrie and Waiters on the roster. They can easily rotate the three or play all three at the same time with Oladipo covering certain SF’s in this league. I can see the Cavs using either Waiters or Oladipo like San Antonio has used Ginobli in the past few years and how OKC used Harden off of the bench. It gives the Cavs multiple options on the perimeter. Considering Chris Grant/the Cavs’ overall philosophy of adhering to advanced statistics as well as Mike Brown’s emphasis on defense, I think Oladipo could fit where the Cavs want to go. This team desperately needs an infusion of perimeter defense and Oladipo would instantly provide that along with tremendous upside offensive potential. Let me be clear that I believe I am on an island here with this selection as the Cavs #1 pick and am quite aware that there is <5% chance of this even happening. I just feel that if every player in the lottery plays up to his potential, Oladipo will become the best player in this draft. At bare minimum he is still a great defender who can run as well in transition as anyone in this draft. His floor is very high and if you are not convinced, feel free to take a few minutes to watch his scouting report here-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgWJGiJJAwk
With the 19th pick already traded for Wilson Chandler and a deal struck to get Dallas’ 13th pick, I would go after a shot blocking big man in Gorgui Deng out of Louisville. He is a 6-10, 230lb Center with a 7-3.5 foot wingspan, who is a bit old at the age of 23 but does two things well- block shots (2.5/g) and hit mid range jumpers. Dieng made 15 of the 23 mid range jumpers (65%) he attempted over the last 15 games of the season and 50% of his 42 attempts overall on the season. He would give the Cavs an excellent shot blocker and a great pick and pop guy on offense that Nerlens Noel wouldn’t be able to give you. He has the ability and skills to be every bit as good as Serge Ibaka has been for OKC. Granted he is 4 years older than Noel but to me age is not a huge deal for a guy who is mainly used as a defensive big man. He isn’t a point guard where speed and quickness fades with age.
With the 19th pick already traded for Wilson Chandler and a deal struck to get Dallas’ 13th pick, I would go after a shot blocking big man in Gorgui Deng out of Louisville. He is a 6-10, 230lb Center with a 7-3.5 foot wingspan, who is a bit old at the age of 23 but does two things well- block shots (2.5/g) and hit mid range jumpers. Dieng made 15 of the 23 mid range jumpers (65%) he attempted over the last 15 games of the season and 50% of his 42 attempts overall on the season. He would give the Cavs an excellent shot blocker and a great pick and pop guy on offense that Nerlens Noel wouldn’t be able to give you. He has the ability and skills to be every bit as good as Serge Ibaka has been for OKC. Granted he is 4 years older than Noel but to me age is not a huge deal for a guy who is mainly used as a defensive big man. He isn’t a point guard where speed and quickness fades with age.
With pick #31 traded to Dallas in the deal to get Dieng, that leaves one second round pick for the Cavs at #33. I think there they could either draft a European player and stash him away for a few years or grab the best player available. For this purpose I would like to take a young, developmental PG in Pierre Jackson out of Baylor. He is a 5-10, 176lb PG who is very quick and extremely streaky. He put up 19.8 ppg, 7.1 apg and 3.8 rpg with a 2.08 assist/TO ratio. He can get a little out of control at times but has a little Nate Robinson in him as well. He would be worth a shot in round two.
Free Agent Options
Based on the above scenarios, I believe the Cavs should be in the market for a veteran who can sign for a short term deal to help in the locker room and be a good defensive role model for the young players in Mike Brown’s system. A guy I’d target is Zaza Pachulia. He won’t cost a ton of money, say a 1 year, $4m deal, and can add some toughness inside and be a quality veteran role model for Thompson, Zeller and Dieng. He will not demand many minutes either. I really wouldn’t want to add anything else for this upcoming season through free agency, considering how many mediocre players will be overpaid in this poor FA market. 2014 is where the Cavs should make a splash in free agency.
Based on all of the assumed moves listed above, here is what the Cavs roster would like look along with salaries through the next few years. The Cavs could start a lineup of Kyrie, Oladipo, Chandler, Thompson and Varajeo with a solid second unit of Waiters, Ellington, Gee, Zeller and Dieng. To me this is an improved team this season while maintaining excellent cap flexibility going forward along with multiple first round picks in the coming years. I still don’t think this is a playoff team and will allow the Cavs to still be in a loaded 2014 lottery.
Notice that if Gee’s option is not picked up for 2014, there will be ~$16m available under the cap in 2014/15 season, not coincidentally just about enough to sign a certain max player.
| Team Option | Qual Offer | |||||
| Player | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | ||
| 1 | PF | Anderson Varejao | $9,100,000 | $9,800,000 | $0 | $0 |
| 2 | PG | Kyrie Irving | $5,915,880 | $7,459,924 | $9,697,901 | $0 |
| 3 | PF | Tristan Thompson | $4,285,560 | $5,421,233 | $7,150,606 | $0 |
| 4 | SG | Dion Waiters | $3,894,240 | $4,062,000 | $5,138,430 | $6,777,589 |
| 5 | SF | Alonzo Gee | $3,250,000 | $3,250,000 | $0 | $0 |
| 6 | SG | Wayne Ellington | $3,103,732 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 7 | PF | Tyler Zeller | $1,633,440 | $1,703,760 | $2,616,975 | $3,695,168 |
| 8 | SG | Victor Oladipo | $4,286,900 | $4,479,800 | $4,672,700 | $5,892,275 |
| 9 | C | Gorgui Dieng | $1,599,300 | $1,671,300 | $1,743,200 | $2,491,033 |
| 10 | SF | Wilson Chandler | $5,930,415 | $6,344,164 | $6,754,913 | $7,171,662 |
| 11 | C | Zaza Pachulia | $4,000,000 | |||
| 12 | PG | Pierre Jackson | $550,000 | $788,872 | $915,243 | |
| Total | $47,549,467 | $44,981,053 | $38,689,968 | $26,027,727 | ||
| Available | $10,450,533 | $13,018,947 | $19,310,032 | $31,972,274 |
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