My Draft Wishes: Rounds 1-3

5 days till the draft!!! With that being said here is my wishlist for rounds 1-3 barring any trades:
Round 1- Adrian Peterson, RB-OKL.
No brainer pick in my opinion. Safest pick in the draft outside of Calvin Johnson and helps fill a need to finally get a RB who can be a workhorse and a gamebreaker. Combined with Jamal Lewis, the Browns quickly form one of the best backfield duos in the NFL and help one of the young QB's stay on their feet.

Round 2- Aaron Sears, G/OT- Tenn
After taking a skill position player in Round 1, the Browns need to address the OL. Sears was a solid, versatile performer at Tennessee. From 2003-05, he started 13 games at left tackle, six at right tackle, four at right guard, and one at left guard -- that was prior to starting all 13 games at left tackle in 2006, when he was named second-team All-American and consensus first-team All-SEC.

Round 3-Daymeion Hughes. CB- CAL
After running a sub par 40 yard dash at the combine (4.65), Hughes has seen his draft stock plummet all the way out of the 1st round and is now considered a late 2nd to mid 3rd round choice. Hopefully he falls right into Phil Savage's lap. His on the field production can't be overlooked. He has been a full time starter every year since his sophmore campaign. In 2006, he started all 13 games and earned first team All-American honors (coaches and media), first team All-Pac 10 accolades ,and the Pac 10 Defensive Player of the Year award after finishing with 72 total tackles, one tackle for loss, 11 pass breakups, and eight interceptions, returning two for touchdowns.

QB- Too much of a Risk

All I've been hearing the last few days, especially from guys like Tony Grossi and Kendall Lewis, is how the Browns need to focus on drafting a QB and until they draft a so called "franchise" quarterback, they will never win. As much as I respect their opinions, especially given Lewis' track record, I believe their theory is flawed. There is no doubt in my mind that quarterback is the an essential position on any football team. If the NFL had a dispersal draft of every player in the league, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Carson Palmer would go 1,2 and 3 in that order. With that being said, the theory that QB is such an important positon does not mean that you have to draft any QB in the upper portion of the first round. History tells us that drafting a QB that high is a crapshoot. It is virtually impossible to project how a quarterback's skills will translate to the NFL game. There is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to the QB position. Need I remind you of how many talent evaluators thought that Ryan Leaf would turn out to be a better pro than Peyton Manning. For every Manning, McNabb and Palmer there is an Akili Smith, Joey Harrington and Ryan Leaf. I decided to take a look at every draft from 1997-2005 and see how many QB's were taken in the 1st round and how many have become stars or have become busts. I did not include 2006 since it is too early to really know how those guys will turn out. Since 1997, there have been a total of 24 1st round picks. Of those 24, it's pretty easy to conclude that 7 of them have turned out well. Here are the 7:

Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Chad Pennington
Peyton Manning
Michael Vick
Duante Culpepper
Donovan McNabb

However, there are 17 busts, or guys who have not/did not live up to their 1st round grade. That list includes:

Aaron Rodgers
Kyle Boller
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Akili Smith
Cade McNown
Ryan Leaf
Jim Druckenmiller
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
JP Losman
Byron Leftwitch
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Tim Couch

Notice that the second list is much longer! Point being, if you hit on a QB in the 1st round it can be rewarding. However, when only 30% of those picks actually pan out, you are taking a huge risk. Add to the fact that it will probably take a team millions of dollars and at least 3-4 years to figure out that the QB is not the answer.
I also decided to take a look at how running backs have fared during that same time period. I discovered that there is a much higher correlation between being drafted in the 1st round, especially the top 10, and succeeding in the NFL as compared to QB's. From 1997-2005, there have been 26 1st round selections, with 10 of them being in the top 10. Of these 10 only two players (Curtis Enis and Cedric Benson) can be labeled a bust, although it may be too early on Benson.

Why Peterson is Getting a Raw Deal

When it comes to the Browns and the draft, Cleveland fans are as passionate and knowledgeable as any in the NFL. However, there are times I feel they get blinded by the media's opinions on players. First and foremost on that list this year is Adrian Peterson. The Oklahoma running back was heralded as the consensus player of the year coming out of high school in the state of Texas. And after a stellar freshman season where he ran for over 1,900 yards with 15 td's, those proclomations seemed right on the money. He followed that up with two more 1,000 yd+ seasons with 26 combined td's. Many pundits regarded Peterson as the best player in college. However, heading into next week's draft, AP has seen his stock slowly fall. The main reason is that many people are questioning his durability. They point to some of his injury issues in college and are labeling him "injury-prone". To me it's all junk. In his freshman season of 2004, he missed parts of two games due to injury. In 2005, he missed all or more than half of four games with an ankle injury but still managed to rush for more yards than any other Big 12 running back. And this past season he mised 6 games due to a freak separated shoulder after diving into the endzone akwardly. There is no doubt he has missed his fair share of games, however, to call AP injury-prone is ridiculous. To me injury prone is a label put on players like Fred Taylor, who are always tweaking or pulling hamstrings, groins, etc. Those are the type of injuries that linger for full season. Spraining an ankle or separating a shoulder are freakish contact injuries that can happen to anybody. Furthermore, to somehow think that since a running back has had injuries in college, he will continue to get hurt and miss games in the NFL, is a fallacy. And vice versa. There is little correlation between the two. If there was some sort of correlation, guys like Frank Gore, Willis McGahee and Deuce McCallister should have never been drafted in the 1st place. Gore suffered, not one, but two torn ACL's in college yet started all 16 games last season and played in 14 his rookie year. McGahee severly tore his ACL and other ligaments in the final game of his college career, yet has only missed two games in three seasons. McCallister dropped on draft boards coming out of Mississippi 6 years ago. Except for one season where he missed 2/3rds of the season with a knee injury, Deuce has never missed more than two games in a season. Point being those players, who all had the "injury-prone" label coming out of college and dropped significantly in the draft, are considered three of the top 10 running backs in the league and have not shown any signs of being often inured. On the flip side, Fred Taylor rarely missed a game in college yet is a poster child for nagging inuries. Bottom line is that the pounding NFL running backs take, is just the nature of the league. That's why more teams are going to the two back system. However, to pass on a running backbased on one or two injuries in college, is simply stupid.

Russell Overrated

All this talk about the Browns drafting either Brady Quinn or trading up for JaMarcus Russell better be a smokescreen. Neither of these guys can help this franchise turn things around. Lets start with JaMarcus "He can make all the throws" Russell. This guy suddenly went from a run of the mill QB to the next big thing in a matter of weeks towards the end of the season. Sure you look at his stats on the surface, 28 TD's 8 INT 167 Rating, and they look great but you better examine them more deeply. Since LSU games were on tv almost as frequently as Notre Dame games were, I saw Russell play on numerous occasions. What stuck out then and still sticks in my head now is how he performed against the best defenses in the SEC. He struggled mightily and threw some of the worst interceptions I've ever seen (including a very bad one against Tennssee that went back for 6). Lets take a look at three specific games and how Russell performed:

9/16 vs Auburn: 20-35 269 yds 0 td o int (so-so) Loss
10/7 vs Florida: 24-41 228 yds 1 td 3 int (bad) Loss
11/4 vs Tennessee: 24-36 247 yds 3 td 3 int (not great) Win

In those three games, 2 losses by the way, he has a 60% completion percentage, with 4 td's and 6 int's. Not very good. Russell definitely feeds off inferior competition. Take a look at his stats vs. the two worst teams in the SEC and the worst team on LSU's schedule:

9/2 vs Louisiana-Lafayette: 13-17 253 yds 3 td 0 int
9/30 vs Mississippi St.: 18-20 33o yds 3 td 0 int
11/18 vs Mississippi: 20-36 223 yds 3 td 0 int

That's an astounding 70% completion rate, 9 td's o int. Impressive, however unfortunately for him, he will not be facing Louisiana-Lafayette type of defenses in the NFL. Point being NFL scouts, fans, GM's, etc fall in love with size, arm strength, etc however they blindly excuse poor performances versus the best defenses they face on the field. And it's not as if LSU isn't loaded offensively surrounding Russell.