QB- Too much of a Risk

All I've been hearing the last few days, especially from guys like Tony Grossi and Kendall Lewis, is how the Browns need to focus on drafting a QB and until they draft a so called "franchise" quarterback, they will never win. As much as I respect their opinions, especially given Lewis' track record, I believe their theory is flawed. There is no doubt in my mind that quarterback is the an essential position on any football team. If the NFL had a dispersal draft of every player in the league, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Carson Palmer would go 1,2 and 3 in that order. With that being said, the theory that QB is such an important positon does not mean that you have to draft any QB in the upper portion of the first round. History tells us that drafting a QB that high is a crapshoot. It is virtually impossible to project how a quarterback's skills will translate to the NFL game. There is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to the QB position. Need I remind you of how many talent evaluators thought that Ryan Leaf would turn out to be a better pro than Peyton Manning. For every Manning, McNabb and Palmer there is an Akili Smith, Joey Harrington and Ryan Leaf. I decided to take a look at every draft from 1997-2005 and see how many QB's were taken in the 1st round and how many have become stars or have become busts. I did not include 2006 since it is too early to really know how those guys will turn out. Since 1997, there have been a total of 24 1st round picks. Of those 24, it's pretty easy to conclude that 7 of them have turned out well. Here are the 7:

Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Chad Pennington
Peyton Manning
Michael Vick
Duante Culpepper
Donovan McNabb

However, there are 17 busts, or guys who have not/did not live up to their 1st round grade. That list includes:

Aaron Rodgers
Kyle Boller
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Akili Smith
Cade McNown
Ryan Leaf
Jim Druckenmiller
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
JP Losman
Byron Leftwitch
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Tim Couch

Notice that the second list is much longer! Point being, if you hit on a QB in the 1st round it can be rewarding. However, when only 30% of those picks actually pan out, you are taking a huge risk. Add to the fact that it will probably take a team millions of dollars and at least 3-4 years to figure out that the QB is not the answer.
I also decided to take a look at how running backs have fared during that same time period. I discovered that there is a much higher correlation between being drafted in the 1st round, especially the top 10, and succeeding in the NFL as compared to QB's. From 1997-2005, there have been 26 1st round selections, with 10 of them being in the top 10. Of these 10 only two players (Curtis Enis and Cedric Benson) can be labeled a bust, although it may be too early on Benson.