Cavs 2013 Offseason Blueprint (to me at least)

Current Roster Situation

Let’s first set up the Cavs off season situation. Below is the current roster with salaries thru 2016/17. As it stands today, there are only 6 players with guaranteed contracts for next season (Andy, Kyrie, TT, Waiters, Gee and Zeller). Marreese Speights has a $4.5m player option and it is presumed that he will opt out and test the FA waters. With an extremely weak FA class this offseason combined with Speights’ solid post-trade season (10 ppg, 5 rpg, 45% FG in only 18 mpg), he most likely will be able to get more than his $4.5m option in the open market. This is ok for the Cavs as he does not fit Mike Brown’s defensive mentality inside. The other two players with qualifying offers are Wayne Ellington and Omri Casspi. You can waive bye bye to Casspi. Ellington, on the other hand, was a nice player off the bench for the Cavs providing good outside shooting and a good veteran approach. I think $3.1m for one year of Ellington’s services is a bargain and he will likely stick around for another season. Finally, the Cavs have a $2.2m team option on CJ Miles. I personally am not a fan of Miles’ game at all as he is one of the least efficient offensive players in the NBA (scoring 11 ppg on only 41% shooting). He’s a shoot first only player and plays no defense whatsoever. He is not a good fit in Mike Brown’s system and between he and Ellington I believe only one should stick around. Assuming Ellington is in the mix that makes 7 players under contract for this upcoming season at only $31.1m in total salary. Remember, due to the new CBA rules, teams need to spend 85% of the upcoming salary cap (cap not set yet but ~$58m is expected) which would equate to $49m. The good news is that there is no penalty for not reaching this floor but if a team is short of that $49m figure, the remaining dollars get spread evenly across the existing roster. So in essence, the Cavs have to spend at least another $18m this season in new salaries to reach the cap floor.

Key: Player Option / Team Option / Qualifying Offer
Assuming: $58m 2013-14 Salary Cap, $70.3m Tax threshold
Player	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17
Anderson Varejao	$8,400,000	$9,100,000	$9,800,000	$0	$0
Luke Walton	$6,091,363	$0	$0	$0	$0
Kyrie Irving	$5,530,080	$5,915,880	$7,459,924	$9,697,901	$0
Daniel Gibson	$4,792,332	$0	$0	$0	$0
Marreese Speights	$4,200,000	$4,515,000	$0	$0	$0
Tristan Thompson	$4,006,080	$4,285,560	$5,421,233	$7,150,606	$0
Dion Waiters	$3,726,600	$3,894,240	$4,062,000	$5,138,430	$6,777,589
Alonzo Gee	$3,500,000	$3,250,000	$3,250,000	$0	$0
Omri Casspi	$2,277,306	$3,313,480	$0	$0	$0
CJ Miles	$2,225,000	$2,225,000	$0	$0	$0
Wayne Ellington	$2,083,042	$3,103,732	$0	$0	$0
Tyler Zeller	$1,563,120	$1,633,440	$1,703,760	$2,616,975	$3,695,168
Shaun Livingston	$806,323	$0	$0	$0	$0
Kevin Jones	$390,000	$0	$0	$0	$0
TOTALS:	$49,591,246	$41,236,332	$31,696,917	$24,603,912	$10,472,757

Trade Options

In terms of potential trades, we'd all love to get our hands on guys like LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Love but I want to be realistic here. Those stars aren't available, yet. I'll get back to you next off season for a potential deal. With the 2014 draft being heralded as one of the best of recent memory, I highly doubt that either Minnesota or Portland would make a move on their star in advance of that draft.

As far as the Cavs I'd like to see them go after a young veteran SF who doesn't make a ton of money but can come in and start immediately. If you look at guys potentially available on teams heading towards the luxury tax, I point to one player in particular, and that is Wilson Chandler from the Denver Nuggets. Chandler is a 26 year old, 6-8, 220 lb SF who can shoot it well from the outside and plays solid defense. After coming back from an early season injury, Chandler put up 13.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.3 apg and 1.0 steals. He did it while shooting 46% from the field and 41% from 3pt land. Almost as important, he only makes $6.3m this season and $6.7m next season with a $7.1m team option in 2015. Those are reasonable salary figures for the next 2 years and I think the Cavs could easily absorb this without hurting any of their future cap flexibility. Now you may ask why Denver would let him go. Assuming Andre Iguodala resigns with Denver, they are going to be staring at a salary figure of ~$70m this upcoming season and will be over $60m in 2014. This doesn't even include having to resign Kenneth Farried to a large extension, for which he will be demanding in a few short years. So it is imperative for the Nuggets to shed some salary. In addition, the emergence of rookie SF Evan Fournier after Dino Gallinari went down with a season ending injury, would help replace Chandler's production.  The biggest question is how to get Chandler to the Cavs in a trade. A possibility would be to pick up the one year option on CJ Miles and ship him along with pick #19 for Chandler. Denver gets to shed multiple years and ~$3m/yr off the cap for at least two years and get a guy in Miles who can replace some of Chandler's SF production and can thrive in a up tempo offense along with the 19^th pick ($1.1m cap hold).

A way for the Cavs to recover a first round pick lost in a Chandler type of trade? Nowhere else to look except for the Dallas Mavericks who have made it known they intend to trade the pick in order to save cap space for a run at Dwight Howard. The Cavs could trade Dallas pick #31, which is not guaranteed, along with the Sacramento future 1^st round protected pick that came in the Hickson/Casspi deal. That way Dallas gets some assets but doesn’t add any money to their salary cap. Gilbert could even toss in $2-3m in cash to make that trade happen.

Draft Options

It’s easy to write about how Nerlens Noel should be the #1 pick but I having watched him play many times this season for UK along with his ACL injury, extremely frail body at 206 lbs and beyond limited offensive skills I just don’t think he is worthy as the first selection. Gone are the days of just taking the best big man available at the top of the NBA draft. As we have seen, the new NBA is won with stud perimeter players. According to DraftExpress, Noel was only used on 18% of his team’s offensive possessions, which ranks an astonishing 6^th on UK alone! He had three possessions per game with his back to the basket and only scored on 45% of those plays, showing just how limited his back to the basket skills are against mediocre SEC big man competition. He has zero jumpshot to speak of and shot only 53% from the foul line this past season. So you will have two sub 60% FT shooters on the floor at the same time if you pair Thompson and Noel together late in games. You have to assume Noel will become a better offensive player but his upside will be limited to a point. What you are getting is a great shot blocker, with zero offensive skills, who runs very well in transition but will be pushed around in the post for a few years before he gains 20+ lbs at least.

Back in March, thanks to WFNY’s Jacob Rosen, I wrote my opinion on some of the top prospects coming out in this year’s draft- http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2013/03/2013-nba-draft-second-tier-fits-for-the-cavaliers/.  Even then I thought that Otto Porter was the best fit for the Cavs needs at SF. I still like Porter but I’ve been starting to get warm to the idea of other options at pick #1. I think that there are only four players to consider at this spot for the Cavs- Noel, Porter, Victor Oladipo, Ben McLemore and Alex Len.  We all know Porter’s attributes as a solid, team first, heady player. I think his floor is as safe as any player in this draft but also his upside is somewhat limited. Many have compared Porter to Tayshaun Prince which I think is pretty fair. You can expect a nice, solid SF for the next 10-12 years who can play defense and be a good team player. If you want to pencil in a Tayshaun type of career right now for Porter I think many teams would be happy in the top 10. Problem is, if there are players a team is passing on who could be a perpetual All Star and maybe a franchise type of player, it’s tough to settle on Porter. Again I do like him and think he is the type of player the Cavs need but there is another guy who I think has a real shot to be the best player in this draft- Victor Oladipo. Consider this, here are the combine measurements and statistics of a current NBA player during his final collegiate season compared to Oladipo’s from this past season:

NBA Player: 6-2.2 w/out shoes, 192 lbs, 36.5 vertical leap, 3.08 ¾ sprint. 34.9 MPG- 12.7 ppg, 4.3 apg, 3.9 rpg, 46.5% FG, 33.8% 3pt, 71.3% FT

Oladipo:  6-3.2 w/out shoes, 213 lbs, 42.0 vertical leap, 3.25 ¾ sprint. 28.4 MPG- 13.6 ppg, 2.1 apg, 6.3 rpg, 59.9% FG, 44.1 3pt, 74.6% FT

That NBA player also had concerns coming out of college that he was a tweener and scouts weren’t sure whether he was a PG or SG. That NBA player is Russell Westbrook. Everyone in the NBA realizes how great of an athlete that Westbrook is at the PG position but it should be noted that Oladipo put up athletic numbers that rival and even beat Westbrook’s results including a ridiculous 42 inch vertical leap. Of course there are questions with Oladipo’s offensive game but he was one of the most efficient players in CBB last season, shooting an insane 60% for a Guard including 44% from 3pt range. Granted he didn’t take many 3’s per game (1.9/g) but proved that he has the ability to make outside shots. Also, remember that there were plenty of ball handling & PG concerns when Westbrook came out too. He was a tweener at the time and here are specific quotes from the scouting report provided from the DraftExpress website: “Westbrook’s ball-handling skills are fairly limited.” “He lacks the advanced dribbling skills needed to create his own shot and change directions sharply in the half-court.” “It’s still not quite clear what position Westbrook will play in the NBA, even if it could probably be said that his upside is so high that he can just figure that out down the road.” These are all the same things being said about Oladipo and the good news for Cavs fans is he doesn’t need to play more than a few minutes per game at the point but has shown enough promise that he could if need be. What really intrigues me the most about Oladipo’s game is his non-stop motor and excellent perimeter defense. He held Trey Burke to 16-44 (36%) shooting in their two matchups this season. The guy is a demon in transition and his defensive prowess would lead to easy fast breaks. I’m sure there are concerns about where Oladipo would play with the Cavs considering they have Kyrie and Waiters on the roster. They can easily rotate the three or play all three at the same time with Oladipo covering certain SF’s in this league. I can see the Cavs using either Waiters or Oladipo like San Antonio has used Ginobli in the past few years and how OKC used Harden off of the bench. It gives the Cavs multiple options on the perimeter. Considering Chris Grant/the Cavs’ overall philosophy of adhering to advanced statistics as well as Mike Brown’s emphasis on defense, I think Oladipo could fit where the Cavs want to go. This team desperately needs an infusion of perimeter defense and Oladipo would instantly provide that along with tremendous upside offensive potential. Let me be clear that I believe I am on an island here with this selection as the Cavs #1 pick and am quite aware that there is <5% chance of this even happening. I just feel that if every player in the lottery plays up to his potential, Oladipo will become the best player in this draft. At bare minimum he is still a great defender who can run as well in transition as anyone in this draft. His floor is very high and if you are not convinced, feel free to take a few minutes to watch his scouting report here-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgWJGiJJAwk

With the 19^th pick already traded for Wilson Chandler and a deal struck to get Dallas’ 13^th pick, I would go after a shot blocking big man in Gorgui Deng out of Louisville. He is a 6-10, 230lb Center  with a 7-3.5 foot wingspan, who is a bit old at the age of 23 but does two things well- block shots (2.5/g) and hit mid range jumpers. Dieng made 15 of the 23 mid range jumpers (65%) he attempted over the last 15 games of the season and 50% of his 42 attempts overall on the season. He would give the Cavs an excellent shot blocker and a great pick and pop guy on offense that Nerlens Noel wouldn’t be able to give you. He has the ability and skills to be every bit as good as Serge Ibaka has been for OKC. Granted he is 4 years older than Noel but to me age is not a huge deal for a guy who is mainly used as a defensive big man. He isn’t a point guard where speed and quickness fades with age.

With pick #31 traded to Dallas in the deal to get Dieng, that leaves one second round pick for the Cavs at #33. I think there they could either draft a European player and stash him away for a few years or grab the best player available. For this purpose I would like to take a young, developmental PG in Pierre Jackson out of Baylor. He is a 5-10, 176lb PG who is very quick and extremely streaky. He put up 19.8 ppg, 7.1 apg and 3.8 rpg with a 2.08 assist/TO ratio. He can get a little out of control at times but has a little Nate Robinson in him as well. He would be worth a shot in round two.

Free Agent Options

Based on the above scenarios, I believe the Cavs should be in the market for a veteran who can sign for a short term deal to help in the locker room and be a good defensive role model for the young players in Mike Brown’s system.  A guy I’d target is Zaza Pachulia. He won’t cost a ton of money, say a 1 year, $4m deal, and can add some toughness inside and be a quality veteran role model for Thompson, Zeller and Dieng. He will not demand many minutes either. I really wouldn’t want to add anything else for this upcoming season through free agency, considering how many mediocre players will be overpaid in this poor FA market. 2014 is where the Cavs should make a splash in free agency.

Based on all of the assumed moves listed above, here is what the Cavs roster would like look along with salaries through the next few years. The Cavs could start a lineup of Kyrie, Oladipo, Chandler, Thompson and Varajeo with a solid second unit of Waiters, Ellington, Gee, Zeller and Dieng. To me this is an improved team this season while maintaining excellent cap flexibility going forward along with multiple first round picks in the coming years. I still don’t think this is a playoff team and will allow the Cavs to still be in a loaded 2014 lottery.

Notice that if Gee’s option is not picked up for 2014, there will be ~$16m available under the cap in 2014/15 season, not coincidentally just about enough to sign a certain max player.

			Team Option	Qual Offer
		Player	2013/14	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17
1	PF	Anderson Varejao	$9,100,000	$9,800,000	$0	$0
2	PG	Kyrie Irving	$5,915,880	$7,459,924	$9,697,901	$0
3	PF	Tristan Thompson	$4,285,560	$5,421,233	$7,150,606	$0
4	SG	Dion Waiters	$3,894,240	$4,062,000	$5,138,430	$6,777,589
5	SF	Alonzo Gee	$3,250,000	$3,250,000	$0	$0
6	SG	Wayne Ellington	$3,103,732	$0	$0	$0
7	PF	Tyler Zeller	$1,633,440	$1,703,760	$2,616,975	$3,695,168
8	SG	Victor Oladipo	$4,286,900	$4,479,800	$4,672,700	$5,892,275
9	C	Gorgui Dieng	$1,599,300	$1,671,300	$1,743,200	$2,491,033
10	SF	Wilson Chandler	$5,930,415	$6,344,164	$6,754,913	$7,171,662
11	C	Zaza Pachulia	$4,000,000
12	PG	Pierre Jackson	$550,000	$788,872	$915,243
		Total	$47,549,467	$44,981,053	$38,689,968	$26,027,727
		Available	$10,450,533	$13,018,947	$19,310,032	$31,972,274

March Madness Blowout

Full Disclaimer: I am by no means a writer. I am a Finance guy who loves to watch and play basketball. So please excuse any grammar mistakes.   

Let’s kick this off by posting my credentials. Seeing as I have zero life, I’ve probably watched as much or more basketball in my 35 years on earth as 99% of the public. I typically enter two brackets per pool, one that's more aggressive than my “base” entry. The base entry finished 1st out of 367 entries last year, 181 out of 417 entries in 2011 and 10^th out of 256 entries in 2010. As long as there are no freaky Final 4 participants, like in 2011, I feel confident that my base bracket will finish in the top 25% of most pools. I also have been known to make a few friendly wagers on college basketball so I get to see many teams that the general public doesn’t get to watch. With all of this being said, let me note that I use three resources when making my picks. First I use my own eyes seeing as I’ve watched so much basketball during the season. Secondly I am a Ken Pomeroy junkie and frequent his now popular www.kenpom.com website. If you haven’t seen or heard of the Kenpom website and rankings, you can click here and learn more. As you will see below, Kenpom’s rankings have historically been a great predicting tool when making many of these picks, especially the Final 4 and Championship contenders. While I’m not a slave to the Kenpom numbers, it’s definitely a great way to narrow down your choices when sorting which teams have the best shot to advance in the tournament. Finally, I love to use the Sweet 16 decision tree methodology developed by Gregory Matthews of Stats In The Wild.  He analyzed all teams that have made the Sweet 16 since 2007 and used some relevant stat measures to filter which teams have the best or worst chances of making the Sweet 16.

Using a top down approach, I will break down the Sweet 16 contenders and pretenders, the real Final 4 and Championship contenders as well as a region by region analysis to help develop my final bracket. If you only want to see the bracket scroll all the way to the end.

Sweet 16 Analysis

I like to use the Stats in The Wild analysis to help weed out those teams that have a good or poor shot of getting to the Sweet 16.  Matthews used a classification tree to analyze what qualities separate an NCAA qualifying team from a Sweet 16 team. The idea of a classification tree is to split teams into groups where each group has similar qualities. He looked at the NCAA tournament in the years 2007-2012 using an outcome of advancing to the Sweet 16 or not. There are two real big takeaways from his analysis that I’ll share. First, in the last six years no team with an overall RPI rating between 0.6169 and 0.643, an opponent’s effective possession ratio (OEPR) greater than or equal to 0.9147 and an average 2nd half scoring margin of less than 2.99 has  made it to the Sweet 16 since 2007.  (Courtesy of TeamRankings, opponent’s effective possession ratio measures how good a team is at preventing an opponent’s scoring chances out of their possessions. Creating turnovers and limiting the opponent’s offensive rebounds is the key to keeping this number down. Lower the number the better.) There have been 11 such cases since 2007 and again none have made the Sweet 16. Last season both FSU and Michigan fit this profile and neither advanced past round two with Michigan losing in round one.  This season there are three such teams that fit the bill:  Kansas St, Marquette and North Carolina. A check on the Kenpom website also shows that those three teams respectively rank 26th, 28th and 77^th in his “luck” rankings. This essentially tells us that those teams have a much higher win percentage for the margin of results in their games. In other words, those teams are very lucky to have the records that they have.  I’ve also watched all three teams with my very own eyes and they tell me that none of them are worthy of strong advancement. So when filling out your brackets keep this in mind and unless you really feel obliged, keep those teams out of the Sweet 16. The second takeaway from this analysis is when looking at teams with an overall RPI rating between 0.6169 and 0.643 that have an OEPR of less than 0.9147. There have been nine such cases since 2007 and all nine made the Sweet 16. Last season Ohio State was the only team that fit into this grouping and they made it all the way to the Final 4.  This year those in that grouping include Arizona, Belmont, St Louis and Florida. Again, those are four teams that I liked anyways and my eyes can verify the stats. Interesting to note, is that the committee did no favors for this analysis as Arizona and Belmont play each other in round one.

Final 4 Candidates

While it’s terribly difficult to pick the Final 4 every year, the one thing that’s clear is if you use the Kenpom rankings (www.kenpom.com) as a guide you can feel reasonably confident that there is a good pool of teams to choose from. Looking back at the last eight years of Final 4 teams, 27/32 (84%) of those teams had a Kenpom offensive efficiency ranking in the top 40, 30/32 (94%) had a top 40 defensive efficiency ranking and 30/32 (94%) finished in the top 40 of Kenpom’s overall Pythag rating. 26/32 (81%) of the Final 4 teams finished in the top 40 in all three rankings and all but one of those 32 teams finished in the top 40 in at least one of those rankings.  Note that if the wacky 2011 tournament was not included in this analysis then every Final 4 team would have been a top 40 in both defensive efficiency and pythag rankings. This again proves how improbable those Final 4 runs both VCU and Butler made that year.  Of course you can’t eliminate 2011 from the analysis as there is a realistic possibility that this year’s tournament could match that of two years ago but it’s more likely that was an aberration.  Below is a table of the all the Final 4 teams since 2005 with their offensive & defensive efficiency rankings along with their overall Kenpom Pythag rankings. You will see the pattern listed above:

2012	Off Eff	Def Eff	Pythag		2008	Off Eff	Def Eff	Pythag
Kentucky	2	6	1		Kansas	2	1	1
Kansas	8	8	4		Memphis	4	4	2
Ohio St.	7	1	2		UCLA	7	3	3
Louisville	122	2	20		North Carolina	1	19	4
2011	Off Eff	Def Eff	Pythag		2007	Off Eff	Def Eff	Pythag
Connecticut	21	31	17		Florida	1	12	2
Butler	39	77	54		Ohio St.	4	15	4
VCU	59	143	84		UCLA	23	2	6
Kentucky	7	22	7		Georgetown	2	20	5
2010	Off Eff	Def Eff	Pythag		2006	Off Eff	Def Eff	Pythag
Duke	1	4	1		Florida	2	5	1
MSU	38	27	24		UCLA	28	3	3
Butler	55	15	26		LSU	63	36	38
West Virginia	11	24	8		George Mason	49	18	23
2009	Off Eff	Def Eff	Pythag		2005	Off Eff	Def Eff	Pythag
North Carolina	1	16	1		North Carolina	1	5	1
Villanova	22	15	14		Illinois	3	11	2
Connecticut	15	3	3		Louisville	7	14	5
MSU	20	10	8		MSU	6	25	7

Using the top 40’s as a guide, and assuming that this year will not match that of 2011, we can get a nice pool of Final 4 candidates. I eliminated any team that had a defensive efficiency >40, a pythag >40 as well as any team with an offensive efficiency >40 unless they also had a top 10 defensive efficiency (Wisc, OK St, Gtown) which history has shown typically is the lone exception. This leads to the following 16 Final 4 candidates:

	Pythag	Off Eff	Def Eff
Florida	1	5	2
Louisville	2	15	1
Indiana	3	1	19
Gonzaga	4	3	14
Duke	6	4	25
Ohio St.	5	14	6
Pittsburgh	7	9	17
Kansas	8	25	5
Wisconsin	9	52	3
Michigan St.	10	24	8
Georgetown	12	62	4
Syracuse	13	16	23
Miami FL	14	20	22
St. Louis	16	58	7
Arizona	19	18	36
Oklahoma St.	20	56	9

Highly ranked teams conspicuous from their absence on this list include Michigan, New Mexico, Marquette and Kansas State. Advancing any of these teams to the Final 4 could be a bracket buster. Let the others in your pool make that mistake. Not to say it’s impossible for one of those teams to get there but based on these historical trends, the likelihood is low. Again you also see Marquette and Kansas State missing from the list and they are also part of the Sweet 16 filter listed earlier.

Champion Candidates

The Final 4 filter above narrowed down the candidates to 16 and the next step is to figure out which teams fit the bill as true title contenders. I can add one more filter that has been proven to be very reliable when it comes to predicting champions, scoring margin. In the last eight years only one national champ, 2011 UCONN, won with an average scoring margin less than +15. They did so in that wacky 2011 season that I mentioned above at a +7 pt per game margin. It should be noted that UCONN had Kemba Walker, who was a one man scoring machine. I just don’t see anyone out there in this tournament that can replicate what Kemba and UCONN did that season. Eliminating that fluky season, I narrowed down the above Final 4 list by also adding teams with a scoring margin >15. I made one exception in Duke. Duke’s scoring margin overall is +12.9 yet that number doesn’t reflect the games that Ryan Kelly missed. With Ryan Kelly, Duke’s average scoring margin jumps to +16.9 points per game. Below is the list of the five real champion contenders. Odds are high that one of these teams will be cutting down the nets when it’s all said and done:

	Pythag	Off Eff	Def Eff	Scr Mrgn
Florida	1	5	2	17.9
Louisville	2	15	1	15.6
Indiana	3	1	19	17.5
Gonzaga	4	3	14	17.3
Duke	6	4	25	16.9 (w/Kelly)

REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS:

Midwest Region: The Midwest Region is easily the most difficult region of the four. Normally Louisville would waltz into the Final 4 but with the best #2 seed, Duke, the best #3 seed in MSU and maybe the hottest team in the country as the #4 seed, St Louis, this is a dangerous region.  Normally I’d love to advance St Louis to the Final 8 or even the Final 4 but with Louisville standing in the way, I just can’t do it. 

Best Matchup: Mizzou/Colorado St. CSU thrives on crashing the boards but against a team in Mizzou who is a top 5 rebounding % team nationally, that advantage disappears. CSU’s PG, Dorian Green, has been hampered with an injury lately which lends me to think that Phil Pressey and Mizzou can control this game. Although the Mountain West conference was somehow ranked #1 overall by the RPI, I don't think CSU is as good as its record. The Rams benefit greatly from the thin air in Colorado for a great home court advantage (16-1 at home) and their meager defensive efficiency ranking of just #98 overall isn't enough to get me to like them over an experienced Missouri team.

Biggest Round 1 Upset:  Cincinnati over Creighton.  Everyone loves offense and with the #6 ranked offensive efficiency team in Creighton, lots of people think the Blue Jays can make a run in this tournament. I don’t see it.  They just can’t defend well enough for me. Cincinnati on the other hand should be able to lock down Doug McDermott with their #15 ranked defensive efficiency team. Creighton isn’t used to the rough and tumble of the Big East. Cincinnati ranks #11 in offensive EPR and Creighton is #282 in OEPR. Creighton just doesn’t turn over their opponents. Big edge goes to the Bearcats.

Trendy Upset that Won’t Happen:  Many people like Oregon over Oklahoma State as a trendy upset. Oregon has a nice team, especially with Dominic Artis back in the lineup, but top to bottom Oklahoma State is the better team. Oregon turns it over too much for my liking (251^st TO %) against a team in Okie St that does a good job causing turnovers (87^th in steal %). I’m not a believer in the Pac 12 this season and historically that conference has fizzled early in the tournament.  I think it happens again this year and Marcus Smart and Le’Bryan Nash will lead the Cowboys to a comfortable win. Smart is as competitive a player as there is in the country and will want to show the nation that he is an NBA lottery pick.

Best Round One Bet: Louisville –anything over Play in gm winner. Louisville thrives on turning you over. Both Liberty and NC A&T turn it over a ton (NC A&T TO% 301, Liberty 173). Liberty lost to Richmond by 42 and NC A&T lost to Cincinnati by 54 and Iowa St by 39. Without knowing the odds yet since the play in game hasn’t happened, an alternative best bet is Cincinnati +3.5 v Creighton.

My Pick to Win Midwest Region:  Louisville over Michigan State.  Sparty should be able to advance as they benefit from essentially playing at home, in Auburn Hills, MI for the first two rounds. This should be a classic game and if there is one team that can out tough Louisville it’s the Spartans. I just don’t think, though, that they can keep their turnovers down vs that tough pressing defense from Louisville for 40 minutes. The only way the Spartans have a shot is if Nix and Payne can get Dieng in foul trouble inside. Louisville's zone will give MSU trouble as the Spartans are not a grea 3pt shooting team.

West Region: Where the Midwest is the toughest of all regions, the West is by far the easiest in my opinion. Gonzaga is the worst #1 seed, OSU the worst #2 seed and New Mexico the 2^nd worst of the #3 seeds ahead of Marquette.  Because the top seeds in the West are so weak, it provides a real opportunity for big upsets. The 8-15 seeds are the best of all the regions and can do some damage. Pittsburgh is completely under seeded as an 8 seed and because of that has a real shot at beating the #1 seed in Gonzaga. Pitt is the #7 ranked team in the Kenpom rankings yet are an 8 seed. For a team that has already beaten Georgetown by 28, Syracuse by 10 as well as winning 9 of their 13 Big East games by double digits, facing a #1 seed like Gonzaga won’t be intimidating. In fact if Gonzaga and Pitt do meet up in round two I wouldn’t expect the spread to be more than 2-3 pts in favor of the Zags.  I also think double digit seeds in Belmont, Iona, Boise St, Harvard and Iona can all make their first round games interesting and we may see 1-2 upsets here.

Best Matchup: Notre Dame/Iowa St. This matchup showcases two of the top 50 3pt% shooting teams in the country. Iowa St hoists 26 3’s per game (#2 nationally) and make 39% of them.  If Notre Dame can control the tempo to their liking and limit Iowa State’s 3pt shooting in transition, which is where they like to take many of them, the Irish can win. The one big advantage ISU has over ND is that they rank #70 in OEPR whereas ND ranks #311 defensively.  Even if ISU misses their 3’s, expect to see multiple chances for the Cyclones. ISU Freshman Georges Niang is a big mismatch for ND and will force the Irish Center Jack Cooley outside. Niang is an excellent 3pt shooter and Cooley isn't used to having to guard big men on the perimeter. I have ISU winning this game and advancing.

Biggest Round 1 Upset:  Belmont over Arizona.  As stated in the Stats in the Wild section, I noted that both Arizona and Belmont have a good chance at reaching the Sweet 16 based on recent trends. The problem is that they play each other. After a really hot start, Arizona has come back to earth and the Wildcats have lost 3 of their last 5 games and 5 of their last 10. Belmont on the other hand has played exceptionally well down the stretch winning 6 straight. They have the #2 ranked eFG% offense in the country and are #1 in 2pt shooting %. Belmont ranks 46^th in the Kenpom rankings, extremely high for a small conference team. Arizona will have their hands full against a team that earlier this season went on the road and beat fellow Pac 12 team Stanford by 8 points. Again I am biased against the Pac 12 don’t think they’ll show well early in the tournament.

Trendy Upset that Won’t Happen:  Everyone loves Marshall Henderson and many people are picking Ole Miss over Wisconsin. I think Wisconsin is probably the most frustrating matchup that Marshall and crew could face. The annoying, grind it out style that the Badgers bring to this game is going to make Ole Miss take really bad shots and try and rush the tempo. Wisconsin only allows its opponents to shoot 29% from 3 (#10 nationally) so in order for Ole Miss to win they need to force it inside to Reginald Buckner instead of jacking up outside shots. Ole Miss faced a similar slow tempo team earlier in the season and lost at home to Middle Tennessee St. Wisconsin is too good for that and should win this fairly handily. I see a similar fate vs Wisconsin.

Best Round One Bet: Harvard +11 v New Mexico. I like this New Mexico team but they are not the type of team that will blow your doors off. 18 of their 29 wins have come by 10 pts or less. Harvard struggles against teams that are athletic and can turn them over. New Mexico only ranks 201^st in defensive steal %. A hidden stat I like to look for when taking points as a dog is the FT% ranks from both teams. New Mexico ranks 51^st in FT “defense” while Harvard is 76^th in FT shooting % offense. As we all know, there is no such thing as FT defense. If a team shoots poorly at the line against an opponent it is safe to assume that it is random and pure luck is involved. If Harvard gets those same FT attempts that other New Mexico opponents were given, then it is safe to assume Harvard will make a greater % of them. Those few extra points could be important in covering a large spread like this. On their resume, Harvard has played 4 tournament or tournament quality teams (UCONN ineligible), and lost to UCONN by 8, beat California on the road by 5, lost to St Mary’s on the road by 1 and lost to Memphis on the road by 10. They should be able to stay within the number vs the Lobos.

My Pick to Win West Region: Ohio State over Wisconsin. This is the most wide open region so you can see lots of high seeds going down. I have Pitt upsetting Gonzaga in Round two and Wisconsin beating Pitt to face Ohio State. I think the Buckeyes are playing their best right now and are a totally different team with Shannon Scott in the backcourt together with Aaron Craft. Their perimeter defense together is stifling. In addition, LeQuinton Ross could be an x factor if he can put some points on the board off of the bench so they aren't so reliant on Deshaun Thomas.  It should be a battle but, just like in the Big 10 conference finals, I have the Buckeyes prevailing in the upset riddled West region.

East Region: The East region is fairly balanced with Indiana and Miami on a collision course in the Final 8. What I like most in this region are some of the double digit seeds where there is good potential for upsets in round one. Even Pacific as a #15 seed can stay with Miami.  This region definitely has the best overall NBA talent when you think of players like Cody Zeller, Victor Oladippo, Mike Muscala, CJ Leslie, Allen Crabbe, Anthony Bennett, Michael Carter Williams and Shane Larkin. The East has the potential to be the most entertaining of all the regions with the talent and good double digit seeds.

Best Matchup: UNLV/California. This is the best matchup facing two enigmatic teams with good talent. UNLV is maddening, considering all the talent on the roster, including a likely lottery pick in Anthony Bennett. California also boasts a first round NBA talent in Allen Crabbe and he has the scoring ability to single handedly win a few tournament games. This game will be played in California so you’d expect the Golden Bears to have the advantage. If Bennett and the Rebels play up to their ability, I’d expect them to move on.

Biggest Round 1 Upset:  Bucknell over Butler. We all know Butler has been known to do very well in the NCAA tournament, however this is not the same Butler team we’ve known to love. Butler turns it over a ton and cause very few turnovers themselves. A check on the Kenpom website also shows that Butler is the 7^th most “lucky” team in the nation. Now the good news is that Bucknell doesn’t cause turnovers as well but they are a really efficient team on both sides of the court. Bucknell has nice wins on their resume including beating Purdue on the road and La Salle at home.  They also lost by only two on the road in Missouri where star Center Mike Muscala put up 25 pts and 10 rebounds. Muscala is a big man who is as efficient as any player in the country. The Muscala/Andrew Smith matchup is one of the best in round one. Also, Bucknell is ranked 62nd by Kenpom and have a defensive efficiency in the top 50. Any time a double digit seed has a legit big man who can do it all inside and out, along with a good defense, I like their chances for an upset. I think Bucknell can definitely hang with the Bulldogs and am picking the upset here.

Trendy Upset that Won’t Happen:  Every year it happens where both Vegas and the public are on the same side with a sexy upset in round one and Marquette/Davidson is it this year. While I like Davidson and think Marquette is overrated, I don’t know if this is the best matchup for Davidson. I don’t think they have anyone with the muscle inside to handle Davante Gardner of Marquette. Gardner is a beast inside and can be a one man team without double teams. He also ranks 40^th nationally in offensive rating by Kenpom.  I think Davidson will keep it close but expect Gardner and Marquette to hang on.

Best Round One Bet: Bucknell +4 v Butler. See above

My Pick to Win East Region:  Indiana over Miami. I think this ends up in chalk at the end of the day as both Indiana and Miami are clearly the two best teams in the region. While I like Miami (full disclosure I picked up Miami at 60-1 odds to win the title back in January) I just don’t think they can overcome Indiana’s weapons. Oladippo should be able to control Larkin and the Zeller matchup inside vs Reggie Johnson should be a good one. When it’s all said in done I also think that Miami’s lack of FT shooting will haunt them. As a team, Miami shoots only 67% (223^rd nationally) from the line and that just won't get it done.

South Region: Similar to the East region, the South is very balanced from top to bottom. The South boasts the biggest under seeded team high seed, in Florida, according to Kenpom. The Gators are the #3 seed in the South but are currently ranked #1 overall by Kenpom. Teams ranked #1 by Kenpom have won the national championship 6 out of the last 8 years. When the Gators win they typically dominate the game whereas they’ve struggled mightily in close games. I still think Florida is a slight favorite in this region ahead of Kansas and Georgetown, the top two seeds. To me I find the 4/13, 5/12 matchups as the most intriguing set of games in all the regions. Michigan/SD St and VCU/Akron should be highly entertaining and could set up the best matchup of the tournament in Michigan/VCU. Briante Weber and those VCU guards facing Trey Burke should be fun. The good news for Burke is that he is used to perimeter pressure after facing Aaron Craft and Victor Oladippo in the Big 10. At least he’ll be prepared. Worth mentioning, because he deserves it, is the one man scoring machine for South Dakota St in Nate Wolters. Wolters averages 22 ppg, 5 rebs, 5 assists and has been known to light up opponents. He put up 30 in a 3 pt road loss at Alabama and 28 in an impressive win at the Pit in New Mexico, so he has proven he can score against really good defenses. It's a good thing that Michigan is playing close to home in Auburn Hills or I'd be tempted to take the upset here. Michigan better look out in round one.

Best Matchup: UCLA/Minnesota. Two extremely talented yet mysterious teams. Both these teams can beat anybody in the country, when they are on. Losing Jordan Adams was a huge blow for UCLA in the Pac 12 tournament and proved out in the finals loss vs Oregon. The Bruins just don’t have the depth to make a deep tournament run although with Shabazz Muhammad anything is possible. The biggest mismatch in this game is Minnesota’s #1 ranked offensive rebounding % in the country vs a UCLA team that only ranks #267 in keeping its opponents off the glass. Minnesota should get plenty of cracks at the rim and I think take care of the Bruins in a highly entertaining game.

Biggest Round 1 Upset:  Oklahoma over San Diego St. The Aztecs are a completely different team away from home, seeing as their average margin of victory drops from +14.2 to +1.6 when on the road. San Diego State has lost their last 5 road games and 6 out of 7 if you include the neutral games from the Mountain West conference tournament in Las Vegas. Oklahoma isn’t that much better on the road themselves. The good news for Sooner supporters is that they get to the line a good amount and when they get there they hit 76% from the FT line, 12^th nationally. In a tight game like this, I’ll take the team that can knock down FTs at a high rate vs one that doesn’t (SD St 209^th nationally in FT %).

Trendy Upset that Won’t Happen:  I’m going to take a sneak peek into a likely round two matchup with Kansas/UNC. Lots of people see the name on the jersey in North Carolina and expect a big upset in round two. To me UNC is quite possibly the most overrated team in this tournament or at least most over hyped. The total number of tournament teams that UNC has beaten this season? 2- NC State and UNLV both at home.  In the Tar Heels’ 10 losses, the avg margin of loss has been by 12.6 pts. This team can’t step up to its level of competition. If they get past Villanova in round one, which is still a coin flip, they’d have a matchup nightmare with the size of Jeff Withey and Kansas. The Jayhawks struggle against pressure from guards yet UNC doesn’t really cause many turnovers and don’t have the perimeter defender to cause problems for Elijah Johnson.  I think Kansas rolls UNC if there is a round two matchup.

Best Round One Bet: Florida -20 over NW State. NW State is the most up tempo team in the country (72.9 pace) and plays very little defense (194^th in def efficiency). Horrible combination vs the highly efficient Florida Gators. Florida tends to destroy overmatched teams like this and I expect them to play with passion after blowing the SEC title game vs Ole Miss.

My Pick to Win South Region:  Florida over Kansas.  In what looks to be a classic matchup, I think the Gators hang on over Kansas. Patric Young has the muscle inside to contain Jeff Withey one on one and Florida has the perimeter defense to keep up with Elijah Johnson and Ben McLemore. The Johnson/Boynton matchup is an interesting one as they both have had similar inconsistent careers at their repsective schools. I think Florida became a bit too complacent late in the season after blowing so many teams out of the water. This tournament should show how good they really are.

FINAL FOUR

Indiana over Florida: Projected Point Spread (Florida-1)- An extremely difficult choice for me. I actually project that Florida would be a short favorite over Indiana even though they are seeded two notches below Indiana. I think Indiana has too many weapons and Zeller can either score in the post or at a minimum get Patric Young in foul trouble. That along with the firepower outside from the Indiana guards and the transition offense from Oladippo, etc should be able to get the job done. The elephant in the room for Florida is their late game struggles which falls heavily on the shoulders of Kenny Boynton. He’s an extremely streaky player and has been known to fold under pressure. As well as Florida has played all season, Boynton’s mysterious decline in all phases has been puzzling. Without Boynton getting the late game monkey off his back, I don’t think Florida will be able to get past the Final 4.

Louisville over Ohio State: Projected Point Spread (Louisville -5)- This is where I believe Ohio State’s tremendous late season run ends. They benefit from the weakest region where normally this is a Sweet 16 and maybe an Elite 8 team at best. Louisville is just too strong defensively for an offensively challenged Buckeye team. The Siva/Craft matchup at PG would be outstanding and the defense played in a game like this would be at the highest level.  Louisville moves on.

CHAMPION

Indiana over Louisville: Projected Point Spread (Louisville -1)- I actually think that I’d choose Louisville over Indiana if it came down to this game but when it comes to a pool like this I believe the smart play is to take Indiana. The main reason is that even though I think they are the better team, I think Indiana has a slightly better chance to make it to this point and I’d take the Hoosiers over any other team in the country. As mentioned before, Louisville’s road to the Final 4 is as tough as it gets. They’d have to beat four of the top 18 overall rated teams ranked by Kenpom. That’s a daunting task and it doesn’t matter whether they’d play Duke or MSU in the Elite 8 as well as either OSU, Pitt, Wisconsin or Gonzaga in the Final 4.

All of that analysis above leads to my bracket entry this year. Good luck!